Developed countries must set tougher emissions targets going into the Copenhagen negotiations, or face a future where abatement objectives cannot be met, according to new research from The Australian National University.
The research was conducted by Andrew Macintosh of the ANU Centre for Climate Law and Policy, and will be presented at Monday’s Climate Change: Policy Choices and Politics Conference. Mr Macintosh modelled 45 CO2 scenarios to illustrate what would have to occur after 2020 if developed countries pursued an aggregate abatement target for 2020 of between 10 and 20 per cent below 1990 levels, which is consistent with the pledges that have been made by developed countries to date. After 2020, it was assumed that developed countries opted for an 80 per cent emission reduction target for 2050 – consistent with the recent G8 declaration.
The results suggest that if developed countries do not increase their abatement targets for 2020 and 2050, it is unlikely that ‘dangerous climate change’ will be able to be avoided, Mr Macintosh explained.
“The study shows that post 2020, global CO2 emissions would probably have to be reduced by in excess of five per cent a year for the remainder of the century to keep global warming within the much publicised 2°C limit,” he said.
“It also means that by 2050, global CO2 emissions would probably have to be at least 70 per cent below 1990 levels and that developing country fossil CO2 emissions would have to be at least 70 per cent below their peak in or around 2020 – that’s a 70 per cent reduction in 30 years.
“These figures show it’s unrealistic to believe developed countries can pursue moderate short to medium term abatement targets while aiming to keep the increase in the global average surface temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This needs to be acknowledged in policy development process and public debate,” he said.
He added that the results, and those from other studies, highlight that developed countries have two choices.
“The first choice is they can stay on the current negotiation track, reach an agreement that sets low to moderate abatement targets and accept that the 2°C limit will probably be exceeded. Or the second choice is they can create a real chance of a sub-2°C outcome by shifting their negotiating position on targets and financing,” he said.
