The latest research results on climate change will be tabled at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels later today. The 36 page report comes directly out of the major international scientific congress Climate change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions that The Australian National University jointly organised in Copenhagen in March.
The Synthesis Report was co-authored by Professor Will Steffen, Executive Director of the ANU Climate Change Institute and is strictly embargoed until 7pm AEST today.
The latest evidence indicates that many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of earlier projections, and that the world faces serious risks if the temperature of the planet rises by only 2 degrees above the pre-industrial level.
The report describes a number of “tipping points” that, if triggered, could lead to societal disruption for large numbers of people. Examples include the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, changes to the Asian Monsoon and loss of water storage capacity in the Himalayan glaciers. A 2 degree rise in temperatures along with increasing ocean acidification would likely cause catastrophic and irreversible damage to Australia’s Barrier Reef according to the report.
Professor Steffen says that the results of the research lend a sense of urgency to the upcoming climate negotiations in Copenhagen.
“The latest science suggests that the 2 degree C “guardrail” is an upper limit to the temperature rise that humanity might be able to cope with, and as observed and “committed” temperature rise together are already about 1.3 degrees, we are running out of time to get emissions tracking downwards,” he said.
“The economic analyses presented at the Congress highlighted the escalating costs of any further delays in initiating significant emission reductions – the cost of both dealing with impacts and implementing mitigation actions will rise sharply the longer we wait to act.”
ANU economist Frank Jotzo, who also was involved in organising the Copenhagen Congress, adds that the international negotiations toward the UN climate conference in Copenhagen at the end of the year show promise but could fall short of comprehensive climate protection.
“To achieve ambitious mitigation it is critical that all major countries are involved. Many developing countries are willing to come to the party in some form, but they insist that the developed world take bigger steps sooner, and help finance investments in developing countries.”
“Governments need to put a price on carbon, through emissions trading or taxes. It is now up to advanced countries, including Australia and the United States, to show that effective climate policy can go hand in hand with higher living standards.”
The Australian National University, as a member of the International Alliance of Research Universities, was a co-organiser of the international climate change congress. Several ANU scholars organised and chaired specialist sessions at the meeting.
The congress was held in Copenhagen on 10 -12 March and with 2,500 participants. The congress received almost 1,600 scientific contributions from researchers from more than 70 countries. The preliminary conclusions formed the basis for the synthesis report that will be handed over to all participants at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in December in Copenhagen by the Danish Government.
